You may have heard about housing market crashes. But how do they influence the entire market? We have to look at what happened in the late 1990s.
Securitization of the Mortgage
In late 1990s, banks were delighted with the securitization for mortgage. The traditional mortgage involves a person goes to the bank, bank researches on how credible this person is, and lends out the money from the bank’s deposits. But with the help of securitization, the bank will not lend directly to the person. Instead, it would package a lot of loans and sell these packages to different investors, or commercial banks as a financial derivatives.
The securitization was a win – win – win for borrowers, lenders (investors), and banks because the investors have a lot more money that banks can deposit, so individuals now have access to larger loans, investors can earn more returns, and banks can make more money from the transaction fees.
With those benefits, banks wanted to provide as many loans as possible. So after banks make mortgages for everyone that has money, the next big problem is :
How can banks make mortgage to those who do not have money?
Banks designed subprime mortgages for people with no income, luring in the borrower with a low rate for the first three years, and attracting investors in with high returns. Borrowers will pay a much higher interest after the first three years, and will pay a penalty fee if they want to reconstruct the mortgage.
Lending to people with no income, subprime mortgages wouldn’t last long, right?
Not exactly! Thanks to the ever-rising housing prices, after three years with the subprime mortgage, a borrower who cannot pay the high payment will default and re-construct a new subprime mortgage, using the increased price to pay.
For example, suppose you bought a house worth $1 M in 2000 through a subprime mortgage, meaning you paid nothing up front as down payment.
In 2003, you realized that you cannot afford that high interest payment. But now, your house has increased by $0.5 M, so now it is worth $1.5 M. You sell the house and profit $0.5 Million. Using the profit to pay for the penalty, you constructed another subprime mortgage, hence no interest payment for another three years!
What caused the subprime mortgage crash in 2008?
The answer lies in the housing price. 2008 was the first year when housing prices decreased.
When the housing price decreases, people no longer have the incentive to pay back their subprime mortgage.
Continuing from the previous example, after you reconstruct another subprime mortgage in 2003 on the $1.5 M house, three years later, the value of the house has dropped to $1.2 M. You cannot sell the house to take profit because you would have a loss of $0.3 M.
Your two choices are to default or to pay the mortgage. However, there is really no incentive to pay because why would you pay out $1.5M for something that’s worth $1.2M only?
Additionally, you never paid anything into this mortgage (no down payment, no interest payment so far), so you don’t lose anything by defaulting on the subprime mortgage.
Therefore, after the housing price dropped in 2008, more and more people defaulted.
How did housing market affect the entire financial market?
The increase in default in subprime mortgage was making investors think lending money is risky, making it harder for any individual and company to borrow money. The consequence was the cost of borrowing has gone really high.
Businesses had to stop borrowing to finance new project, start to reduce cost by laying off labor. Individuals were scared to spend money
Individuals, worrying about getting laid off, prefered to save up their income instead of spending, lending to a decrease in aggregate spending, which made it harder for business to make money, hence laying off more people.
1990s: https://www.britannica.com/topic/subprime-mortgage